Well, my last post, I declared that I was "back". Clearly, that was a lie. I promise no more lies from here on out.
The playoffs are here. I really love the playoffs. And the strength of the NFL playoffs is the same strength the league has through the rest of the year - with a relatively small amount of effort, you can see pretty much every play. I plan on watching all 4 games this week, and I'm super pumped.
Looking forward, I have a few thoughts about this year's edition. First, you have to look at how bad the top teams' defenses are this year. Green Bay, New Orleans and New England, were they to win, would probably be just about the worst defenses ever to win the Super Bowl. Usually, teams with awesome offenses and terrible defenses find themselves unable to score in a particular game, and they get beat. Specifically, I'm thinking of the 2003 Chiefs and the 2000 Rams. Both were spectacular offenses and terrible defenses. But even with those teams, they could at least run the ball, something none of the top-ranked teams have been able to do.
The four teams (in my opinion) with a shot to knock off those three "top" teams - San Fran, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Giants - all have major flaws of their own. Baltimore is a very good defensive team, and Ray Rice has looked more like Priest Holmes or Marshall Faulk the last few weeks. San Francisco can't score touchdowns. In a lot of way, they remind me of the late-90's/early-00's Steelers. Solid running game. Exceptional defense. Serviceable passing game. Major problem putting the ball in the end zone (and putting teams away). The Steelers would be the best of these three teams if not for injuries (and don't let anyone fool you about the Ravens games - Dave Dameshek put it best, that the Steelers are Moby Dick and the Ravens are Ahab, and that the Ravens have now been defined by their only obsession, beating the Steelers).
The Giants are the most intriguing of the teams. Their LBs and DBs are really mediocre. Their running game is not great, by any stretch. But the d-line can create tons of pressure, in the way that you need to create pressure against teams like GB and NO. Specifically, they can rush 4, create pressure, and still have enough guys back to bump and run at the line and protect over the top. Additionally, Eli Manning has turned into a decent QB, and since neither GB or NO has a great pass rush, he has the potential to be pretty effective. Just like with the Steelers, no one has the DBs to effectively cover both Nicks and Cruz. That means someone will be open on most plays.
I guess, in the end, I'm interested in how flawed every team in the playoffs this year is. The top 6 teams in year-long DVOA (a stat created by Football Outsiders [see www.footballoutsiders.com, they're great] and not including Houston, and maybe that's unfair, but I just don't think that they can compete with TJ Yates at QB), were Green Bay (28.3), Pittsburgh (23.7), New Orleans (23.3), New England (22.5), San Francisco (19.0) and Baltimore (17.2). And the numbers reflect what everyone already knew about these 6 teams. GB, NO and NE have awesome offenses (1, 2, 3 and respectively) and terrible defenses (24, 28 and 30). Similarly, PIT, SF and BAL have great defenses (7, 3 and 1) and mediocre offenses (6, 18 and 13 - where Pittsburgh's #6 ranking reflects a DVOA that is as far behind Green Bay's as Denver's #25 offense is behind Pittsburgh's).
Looking back at the previous years, Green Bay is the worst best team in the league since the 1993 49ers. And as you'll remember, the Niners didn't make the Super Bowl in 1993. In fact, going back to 1993, the Packers wouldn't have been the 2nd best team in the league in any season since 1993. That means we should have a pretty wide-open playoffs.
In the end, if I had to make predictions about Super Bowl matchups, I'd say I like the Packers and the Ravens. Now, I could see any one of the 7 teams I mentioned earlier (NE, PIT, BAL, SF, GB, NO, NYG) making the Super Bowl, and in any combination. I don't love the Packers at home against the Giants, especially if the weather is crappy. I don't love the Saints in San Francisco, either. I don't love the Steelers in either New England or Baltimore, nor do I love either of those teams at home against the Steelers. I also don't love the Ravens in New England, but the Ravens have beaten the Patriots in Foxboro before.
I don't have high hopes for the Steelers. But I believe anything can happen. In fact, I think it's clear that my view on the season was more right than all of the nay-sayers (specifically that the Steelers collapse after their recent Super Bowl appearances). Rather, we are more likely at the end of the 3rd cycle of Steelers football in the Ben Roethlisberger era. In '03, we were terrible, ended up with a mid-1st round pick, went to the playoffs in year 2 ('04) but got taken care of in a frustrating self-beating game, and then won the Super Bowl in year 3 ('05). This repeated in '06 (8-8), '07 (10-6 with an ugly late loss to the Jaguars) and '08 (Super Bowl #2). Then, it repeated again in '09 (9-7), '10 (12-4 and a loss to the Packers, and one that everyone has forgotten was on its way to being a Steelers win until David "I can't block for my fucking life" Johnson missed BOTH BLITZING PACKERS and set up Rashard Mendenhall to get crushed and get a helmet to the football, forcing a fumble and shifting momentum). Well, it's 2011, we're back in the playoffs, and if Ben is even somewhat healthy, in position to beat any team in the league.
So, everyone, please enjoy these wide-open playoffs, and hopefully I'll write something again soon.
