Playoff Time

Well, my last post, I declared that I was "back". Clearly, that was a lie. I promise no more lies from here on out.

The playoffs are here. I really love the playoffs. And the strength of the NFL playoffs is the same strength the league has through the rest of the year - with a relatively small amount of effort, you can see pretty much every play. I plan on watching all 4 games this week, and I'm super pumped.

Looking forward, I have a few thoughts about this year's edition. First, you have to look at how bad the top teams' defenses are this year. Green Bay, New Orleans and New England, were they to win, would probably be just about the worst defenses ever to win the Super Bowl. Usually, teams with awesome offenses and terrible defenses find themselves unable to score in a particular game, and they get beat. Specifically, I'm thinking of the 2003 Chiefs and the 2000 Rams. Both were spectacular offenses and terrible defenses. But even with those teams, they could at least run the ball, something none of the top-ranked teams have been able to do.

The four teams (in my opinion) with a shot to knock off those three "top" teams - San Fran, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Giants - all have major flaws of their own. Baltimore is a very good defensive team, and Ray Rice has looked more like Priest Holmes or Marshall Faulk the last few weeks. San Francisco can't score touchdowns. In a lot of way, they remind me of the late-90's/early-00's Steelers. Solid running game. Exceptional defense. Serviceable passing game. Major problem putting the ball in the end zone (and putting teams away). The Steelers would be the best of these three teams if not for injuries (and don't let anyone fool you about the Ravens games - Dave Dameshek put it best, that the Steelers are Moby Dick and the Ravens are Ahab, and that the Ravens have now been defined by their only obsession, beating the Steelers).

The Giants are the most intriguing of the teams. Their LBs and DBs are really mediocre. Their running game is not great, by any stretch. But the d-line can create tons of pressure, in the way that you need to create pressure against teams like GB and NO. Specifically, they can rush 4, create pressure, and still have enough guys back to bump and run at the line and protect over the top. Additionally, Eli Manning has turned into a decent QB, and since neither GB or NO has a great pass rush, he has the potential to be pretty effective. Just like with the Steelers, no one has the DBs to effectively cover both Nicks and Cruz. That means someone will be open on most plays.

I guess, in the end, I'm interested in how flawed every team in the playoffs this year is. The top 6 teams in year-long DVOA (a stat created by Football Outsiders [see www.footballoutsiders.com, they're great] and not including Houston, and maybe that's unfair, but I just don't think that they can compete with TJ Yates at QB), were Green Bay (28.3), Pittsburgh (23.7), New Orleans (23.3), New England (22.5), San Francisco (19.0) and Baltimore (17.2). And the numbers reflect what everyone already knew about these 6 teams. GB, NO and NE have awesome offenses (1, 2, 3 and respectively) and terrible defenses (24, 28 and 30). Similarly, PIT, SF and BAL have great defenses (7, 3 and 1) and mediocre offenses (6, 18 and 13 - where Pittsburgh's #6 ranking reflects a DVOA that is as far behind Green Bay's as Denver's #25 offense is behind Pittsburgh's).

Looking back at the previous years, Green Bay is the worst best team in the league since the 1993 49ers. And as you'll remember, the Niners didn't make the Super Bowl in 1993. In fact, going back to 1993, the Packers wouldn't have been the 2nd best team in the league in any season since 1993. That means we should have a pretty wide-open playoffs.

In the end, if I had to make predictions about Super Bowl matchups, I'd say I like the Packers and the Ravens. Now, I could see any one of the 7 teams I mentioned earlier (NE, PIT, BAL, SF, GB, NO, NYG) making the Super Bowl, and in any combination. I don't love the Packers at home against the Giants, especially if the weather is crappy. I don't love the Saints in San Francisco, either. I don't love the Steelers in either New England or Baltimore, nor do I love either of those teams at home against the Steelers. I also don't love the Ravens in New England, but the Ravens have beaten the Patriots in Foxboro before.

I don't have high hopes for the Steelers. But I believe anything can happen. In fact, I think it's clear that my view on the season was more right than all of the nay-sayers (specifically that the Steelers collapse after their recent Super Bowl appearances). Rather, we are more likely at the end of the 3rd cycle of Steelers football in the Ben Roethlisberger era. In '03, we were terrible, ended up with a mid-1st round pick, went to the playoffs in year 2 ('04) but got taken care of in a frustrating self-beating game, and then won the Super Bowl in year 3 ('05). This repeated in '06 (8-8), '07 (10-6 with an ugly late loss to the Jaguars) and '08 (Super Bowl #2). Then, it repeated again in '09 (9-7), '10 (12-4 and a loss to the Packers, and one that everyone has forgotten was on its way to being a Steelers win until David "I can't block for my fucking life" Johnson missed BOTH BLITZING PACKERS and set up Rashard Mendenhall to get crushed and get a helmet to the football, forcing a fumble and shifting momentum). Well, it's 2011, we're back in the playoffs, and if Ben is even somewhat healthy, in position to beat any team in the league.

So, everyone, please enjoy these wide-open playoffs, and hopefully I'll write something again soon.

This Weekend

First, I'm clearly back. Two posts in a week.

Second, I've never loved Joe Paterno, but I'm sad to see him go out like this. It is most certainly unfair for such a great coach to get run out of town by the board of trustees at a school which has gained so much from him.

But, if I'm on the Board of Trustees at PSU, my thought is either (1) Paterno knew more than he's letting on or (2) he should have known more than he does. I really do think that it's answer #2, but either way, he's gotta go. I think that it's fair to say that the first qualification (if an unspoken one) of being a college football coach (with regular access, in a position of power, to thousands of young boys and men) is that you have to be able to keep pedophiles off your staff.

And that's all I have to say about that.

As for this weekend's football game, I think it's definitely possible the Bengals could win this game. You do have to respect a 6-2 team. Even though they lost to the Broncos while being -2 in the T/O column. I've really not seen anything from them. They've played a lot of bad teams, save the 49ers, and haven't really beaten any of them badly (accept the Seahawks, who a respected friend of mine called the worst team he has seen play in person in years - and he's had Notre Dame season tickets for a long time).

Cincy's been winning with defense all year. Their run defense is stout (top 3). Their pass defense isn't bad (10th). And I don't want to be the guy to say "oh, it's all their schedule", but I think it's worth looking at.

So, their schedule has been: Cleveland, Denver, San Fran, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Seattle and Tennessee.

Those teams are ranked: 31st, 20th, 27th, 12th, 32nd, 21st, 30th and 28th, respectively, in yards per game.

In passing yards per game: 25th, 31st, 30th, 15th, 32nd, 28th, 23rd, 13th.

The Steelers are top 10 in both measures.

So, what I'm saying is that the Bengals are completely untested. The most dangerous passing combo they've seen is Ryan Fitzpatrick to Stevie Johnson. They've also managed to handle Colt McCoy, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Blaine Gabbert, Curtis Painter, Tavaris Jackson and Matt Hasselbeck. Tavaris Jackson threw for 330 yards.

So, the Bengals may win, but, I think, the deciding aspect of the game will be how the Bengals handle Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Heath Miller. And who am I kidding? I don't buy that they're up to task.

Steelers 27, Bengals 14.

That was a tough one...

I haven't posted in a while. I've written tons of half-posts that I never published. I've also written at least 6 intros commenting on how many half-posts I've written. But I think I'll finally finish this one.

We're halfway through the weirdest year of Steelers football I've seen in a while. Here's what I think.

I think that getting swept in the regular season by the Ravens doesn't bother me as much as it should. Now, the series has been relatively evenly split the past few seasons, but not in games where Ben actually played. Baltimore's effectiveness against us with Ben in the lineup has been unprecedented, but, in my case, not unexpected.

Now, I'm throwing out week 1. The Ravens won that fair and square, but that was an anomaly. The Ravens are most definitely not that good, and clearly, we are not that bad. Last night's performance (for both teams) was more representative of the state of this competition.

But let's look back at the Ben vs Flacco match-ups prior to this season (all of them won by Ben):

1/15/11: After one of the worst first halves of football I've ever seen, we're down 21-7 at halftime, before going up 24-21 early in the 4th. They tie it, and we get the ball back with 3 1/2 minutes left. On a 3rd and 19 from our 38, Ben hits Quick Money for 58 yards on a ball that Brown pins to the logo of his helmet. We punch it in with 1:33 to go, and end up winning 31-24 after Flacco is unable to connect on 4 straight dropbacks.

12/5/10: This is the Troy game. The Steelers, unable to sustain any real offense all game, get a strip-sack from Troy coming off the left end, and Woodley recovers around the Baltimore 9. We get nothing on the first two plays before Ben hits Isaac Redman in the flat, and Redman miraculously weaves through traffic into the end zone. Flacco drives the Ravens well downfield before getting stopped on a 4th and 2 at the Steeler 31.

12/27/09: A game the entered the 4th 20-20, with Ravens running all over us, we get a field goal with 5 1/2 minutes left. LaMarr forces a Flacco fumble with 2 1/2 minutes left at the Steeler 38, and that's that.

1/18/09: Up 16-7 going into the 4th, we give up a TD to the Ravens with about 9 1/2 mins left. On the drive, Baltimore went 58 yards on 6 plays in 3:09. Flacco goes 3-3 for 28 yards, and converts a first down from a 1st and 20 early in the drive.

The Ravens get the ball back with 6:50 left, and a chance to take the lead. On a 3rd and 13, Troy undercuts a Flacco pass and takes it in, and we go on to the Super Bowl.

12/14/08: Down 9-6, 3:36 left, at our own 8, we go 92 yards in 2:53, culminating in a 4 yard TD pass to Santonio at the goal line to win. Don't care what anyone says about Flacco's drive, that one was better.

9/29/08: After letting Baltimore tie it at 20 with 4 mins left, we stifle Flacco in his own end, and win on a Jeff Reed field goal 6 mins into OT.

Even last night, down 16-6 in the 4th quarter, Ben engineers an 11 play, 80 yard TD drive, and and a 6 play 58 yard TD drive on consecutive possessions to go up 20-16. We even get the ball back with a chance to run the clock out, but can't put it away. Flacco gets the ball on his own 8 with 2:17 to go and 1 timeout. Flacco then throws 13 passes in 2:09 (13!) to go the 92 yards for a TD. And the TD is a 28 yard pass on 3rd and 10. Ryan Clark (this is my impression) gets out of position, worried about another 11 yard route, rather than watching the deep ball, and misses defending that pass by about 2 feet. There were :15 left when that play started. An incompletion and Baltimore is in trouble, 4th and 10 at the 28. If they go for the first, they'll likely have one play from the 15 to win. If they go for the end zone, they might only have one shot.

I guess all I'm saying is that it's a tough loss to swallow, but one that was probably coming for quite some time. We've owned the Ravens (especially in the playoffs), and they know this. We have 2 Super Bowl rings in the last 6 years. They have the honor of having lots of road playoff wins, from losing the division and playing overmatched division winners in the first round. Harbaugh said himself that he figured they would win eventually. And that's fair. They have clearly worked very hard on being able to beat us at our own game. With that said, they came very close to falling short yet again. If we execute better next time (and play with a healthy Woodley and an available Emmanuel Sanders), I like our chances.

We're 6-3, with a relatively weak schedule coming up. The Bengals have been a surprise, but if this team wants to make the playoffs (and I think they do), I expect some inspired football next week, and a thrashing not unlike the one Tennessee got in Week 5. The Bengals have been winning by not turning the ball over, and since we can't force turnovers, that should play right into us. I expect to see a lot of looks from LeBeau next week. A lot of stunts, a lot of players moving around. I really liked what I saw regarding his use of James Harrison last night, and Harrison responded with 8 tackles, 3 sacks and a forced fumble. Those are 2008 numbers for Harrison, and I'm wondering if maybe the few weeks off were enough to get him back to feeling close to 100%.

So, a win next week puts us at 7-3 going into our bye, with games against the Chiefs, Bengals, Browns (2x) and Rams to go. Gotta figure that there are at least 4 wins in that bunch, and that 11-5 should get us damn close to the playoffs.

Please Start Getting Yourself Fired Up

I can't say I love the set-up for us this year. I was really hoping for the Colts, so that we could play a soft team that's even more beat-up than we are, and have the Ravens go and beat the Patriots (up?) this weekend. That will not happen. But, please remember the following:

And oh yeah, this. So, I still believe anything is possible.

It's Been Nigh-On 3 Months Since Anyone Posted Here

So, I'm relatively confident this well never get read, save the 3 people who have us in their Google reader, and won't be able to avoid this.

OK. So, I'll talk about the Steelers eventually, but I first want to talk about "Stu Hackel", who is apparently some kind of hockey "writer", although he writes for Sports Illustrated, which means that the majority of his time is spent complaining and bemoaning the fact that sports have "changed".

I also learned that he writes a "blog" for SI. I think what that means is that he gets to spew whatever horseshit pops into his brain without any kind of editorial oversight. His conclusions on the world are (1) the Winter Classic must die, because it was terrible and (2) Sidney Crosby whines too much.

Now, I'm going to address his concerns in inverse order. I'm sure you all saw David Steckel's hit on Crosby's head area the other night. It shook him, but he was OK. He subsequently said that he thought it was a dirty hit.

Maybe it was, maybe it wasn't. Stu dedicated an entire article to it. So, let me be an apologist for the best hockey player in the world (I will hear arguments to the contrary, but no one reads this, so I expect to not get any) - he gets run at every night, on every play. Does he do the things everyone else does? Yeah, he slashes, he will grab, he'll occasionally give a slew foot here and there. But does complaining about a head shot make you a whiner? Maybe it was incidental contact. It was still a shoulder to the back of his head, when he was looking the other way. I thought this was something the entire NHL was upset about.

As for the Classic being past its time, it looks to me like the Classic gets the highest ratings of any NHL game, on a yearly basis. This year was no different, being a solid 10% better in the ratings than last year's game, despite last year's being played between two larger markets (Philly & Boston) and in a more historic and captivating venue.

So, there are two things I know. (1) Sidney Crosby is the best player in the world and people want to watch him and (2) people want to see hockey outdoors. Now, isn't the NHL's goal to bring people back to the game? Aren't these sports writers more valuable if their sport becomes more valuable? Isn't Stu Hackel formerly an NHL Director of Broadcasting??).

Hm.

Stu Hackel was NHL Director of Communications until 2006, the year before the first Winter Classic. Maybe some bitterness there? I dunno, but it seems like this probably would have been his idea, and, consequently, the NHL's biggest rating boom in the past 5 years (Pens/Sabres, Wings/Hawks, Bruins/Flyers and Pens/Caps have all been big draws).

Anyhow, everyone bitches. You just notice when Crosby does it. Impressive he doesn't do it more. And cancel the Winter Classic? Sure. Let's also get Apple to drop the iPod because some of the newer versions have bugs.

Monthly Steelers Update??

Wow, so, I just saw that it's been a month since I've written anything about the Steelers. Oh, and in other news, the Steelers somehow snuck (sneaked?) out of Miami with a win today.

So why no writing on this lovely blog? Part of it is that the last month has been super-hectic. But also, what is there to say about those 3 games since the Tennessee game? You HAVE to feel good about how the team has performed, coming into this morning. 38-13 over Tampa. We killed them. It was lovely. 17-14 loss to Baltimore? A bummer, but really, not a big deal. 28-10 over Cleveland? Exactly what we needed in Ben's first game back.

So, let's get to today. What did we learn? Well, let's start on the offense, and work our way through. At QB, Ben looks very good. He still has some of that sketchiness to him - his two fumbles were not OK. He was trying to do too much. But, with that said, he's throwing the ball as well as ever. He sailed a couple this week, but that's done from a half-dozen last week, so we're headed in the right direction. He looked excellent in the 2-minute drill, and so I think Ben is well on his way to being as effective as ever.

Let's cover wide-out while we're at it. Hines looks as good as he's looked in years. Mike Wallace is the best deep threat in the league this year. Heath is a rock. Emmanuel Sanders has made some timely catches, and in a weird way reminds me of Santonio ALOT. A little undersized, but still lanky. And FAST. And great hands. And yeah, he fumbled today, but he followed it up with what seemed like 3 separate 40+ yard returns.

Let's then cover running back and o-line at the same time. Rashard didn't look great. But he looked worse as the game went on. The heat clearly had a major effect on the big guys, and it showed. I thought Mendy looked impatient, but I'm not sure how much of that had to do with him getting nailed in the backfield a few too many times, and as a result, feeling like he couldn't wait for his blocks to develop.

The play calling was a little bit curious. There were a few too many wide receiver screens. But it's clear to me that the heat really affected both sides of the game.

On defense, the d-line is starting to look pretty rough. I'm hearing that Aaron Smith may have a torn bicep (and is out for the season). I'm not going to lie, I'm not surprised. In the back of my mind, I assumed that we would be watching a Smith-less line at some point this year. What does that mean? Well, it certainly doesn't mean the end of our season. But Keisel needs to get healthy, and the Ziggy/Eason combo is going to need to elevate it's game. Which is most definitely doable. They're expecting to turn Smith's spot over to Hood at some point, so I'm excited to see what he can bring to the table.

With that said, we played with only 2 d-lineman at various times in the game, and that's when Miami's run game really started to heat up. It also hampered the offensive game. Early in the game, we were moving the ball almost at will. But it became clear that we were moving the ball TOO well, and the defense was wearing down as a result of it. Our ability to run the ball effectively is going to be key to our defense the rest of the way.

Linebacker. As usual, we have more talent they we know what to do with. LaMarr went out with an injury (unclear as to what's up with that), but I think that Jason Worilds has all the tools to step in and at least provide some pass-rush help. Woodley's pass-defense skills will be missed, though, and may limit what everybody else on the D can do blitz-wise.

The d-backs looked fine again. I really like how Ike Taylor's been playing, he is clearly the guy on that defense who felt most humiliated by their performance for much of last season, and it's showing in a positive way. He's playing tighter coverage, and is forcing throws into tighter spaces. Troy wasn't terribly involved today, but there was clearly concern over Brandon Marshall. He was not up near the line much today, and a lot of passes were underneath. Really, this defense will give up field goals all day long, and Miami took that all day long, essentially. And lost.

This team is going to be tough to beat, even without Smith. The defense just doesn't give up TDs, which means teams will be scoring 10-18 points most games. This offense will score 21 most games. And by my math, that translates into a lot of wins.

Big game in New Orleans next week, and I think it's unlikely that they throw 4 INTs next week. They'll be pissed, but it also won't be mid-to-upper 80s, which I think will allow us to open up both the offense and defense.

Steelers 19, Titans 11

I hate the Titans passionately.

I mean, they were the Oilers, which was bad enough, but Jeff Fisher. Man. When things aren't going his way, he pouts a lot. Which causes his team to pout. And it really is pathetic. I imagine he is the coach equivalent of Phillip Rivers.



So, what does one say about today's game? Well, 8 days ago, I was praying that we could find a way to be 2-2 when Ben comes back. Today, I'm thinking I don't care what happens the next two weeks. And I'm thinking that 4-0 is not out of the question.

There's not much to say about Dixon's performance. He didn't get a chance to do much, but I thought that he did well enough, creating offense even when he couldn't pass. He also made clear who is the best QB for the job (although if Leftwich gets healthy, he will get some snaps). But for all the people who were touting Charlie Batch, what can you say, except to note that he just wasn't getting the job done.

Actually, I'm going to reconsider that statement. The offense was 1000% predictable today. The computer on NCAA 11 does a better job of mixing things up. Now, I recognize that they were playing it safe, but the fact of the matter is that FGs don't win games.

So, as for the offense, you can't say much good, but I think it's as much on the play calling as anything else.

Let's talk about the defense. Lawrence Timmons - 15 tackles. Harrison - 11 tackes and 2 sacks. Troy with a pick and a leap over the defensive line for a tackle.

You know, I'm not going to say anything more about this game. The defense looked like they were playing a high school team. The Titans & Falcons are averaging 39.5 PPG against anyone but us. We've given up 10 PPG (and that TD for Tennessee was a gift after we started playing prevent). So, it was frustrating to see this game be close but the defense is perfect. End of story. Best in the league, bar none. I defy anyone to find a better a group.