However, it also gives me the insight (or misdirection) of having seen a weeks-worth of football. So, without further ado...
AFC EAST
1. Foxboro Patriots
Why I like them: Tom Brady. Simple as that. Well, maybe not quite that simple, but Randy Moss and Wes Welker might be the best receiving tandem in the league (with due-respect for Fitzgerald/Boldin). However, Moss and Welker have the best QB in the league throwing to them (unlike Fitzgerald and Boldin who have a retread version of Kurt Warner). A lot of the usual prognosticators have been up-in-arms about how awesome the Pats are going to be this year. And while it is true that they will potentially have the best passing attack in the league again this year, following the 2007 campaign where the offense was next to unstoppable.
Clearly, Brady is a little rusty, but he did look as good as always in the last couple minutes, and, most importantly, down near the goal line. It won't take him long to be back to his old tricks, and their offense should be top 3 once again.
Ultimately, this is a team that went 16-0 in 2007 with Brady, and 11-5 in 2008 without him. What that says to me is that there is a pretty decent team around him. Additionally, the AFC East is worse than it was last year. The 'fins have a tougher schedule, the Jets have a rookie QB and the Bills continue to be, well, the Bills. I just can't see this team not winning its division and at least getting a shot in the playoffs.
Why I hate them: Well, the past few years, everyone had been concerned with their defense getting old. Well, they finally cut a lot of those guys loose, but it leaves one with the question of who is left on defense for them. Even Bill Simmons is wondering, calling for the Pats to put up 900 points (combined between their offense and defense) and I can't really argue with him on that. Just an aside though - he said the Pats would be the first - and in fact, they would at least be the third if it happens.
Both the 2000 Rams and the 2004 Chiefs hit those magical numbers - the Rams at 1,011 (541-470) and the Chiefs at 918 (483-435). But I think those are good teams to look at. Both the Rams and Chiefs were coming off dominant seasons. The Rams had cruised to a Super Bowl win at 14-2 in 1999. Best offense in the league - Warner, Faulk, Holt, Bruce, the "Greatest Show on Turf" - and a solid, but not dominant defense. Same thing for the Chiefs... 13-3 in 2003 on the back of Green, Holmes and Gonzalez. Again, decent but not stifling defense. A few changes caused the defenses to fall apart, and all of a sudden you had two teams that were top-3 in offense and bottom-3 in defense. What happened? Rams go 10-6, bow out in the first round of the playoffs. The Chiefs? 7-9, no playoffs at all.
I don't necessarily see such an awful fate for the Pats, but if their defense is that bad, they're going to struggle to be successful even with the great Brady-Moss-Welker hookup. They did not look good against the Bills, at all. The Bills offense might be the worst offense in the league, and yet they looked in-control and competent for 58 minutes of that game. I'm not saying the Pats are doomed to go 7-9, I'm just saying that if the D doesn't get it together, they will be in trouble.
With that said, the Bills game showed us a lot. Neither Warner nor Green was as deadly a QB as Brady is, when given the slightest of openings.
Most Likely to Get Arrested: Bill Bellichick. Tax evasion. No man looks for an advantage anywhere he can find it more than Bellichick. I imagine that a close inspection of his tax returns would lead you to find that he has claimed the entire 53-man roster as dependents for each of the past 9 seasons.
And we can only hope Randy Moss would counsel him on how to pay the fines.
Predicted Finish: 13-3, First in the AFC East (#1 Seed based on tiebreaker). Yeah, yeah, I know, I just talked about how much worse they could be. But they did go 16-0, and their schedule really isn't all that hard. They have an average-strength schedule, but not too many tough road games. They have Indy and New Orleans on the road, but beyond that, not much to worry about. So, yes, once again, they will reign supreme in the east, and have a week off before playing for a spot in the AFC Championship.
2. Miami Gardens Dolphins
Why I like them: Solid defense and good coaching. Can't say much about their offense, except that Ronny Brown and Ricky Williams make a solid 1-2 punch. Plus, Chad Pennington doesn't turn the ball over and the team doesn't fumble. This shows good coaching and a lot of experience, and is not something that really comes and goes. They did play a good schedule, but it was avoiding turnovers that really saved them.
Plus, they are NOT a 1-15 team under any circumstance. How anybody could think that Cam Cameron was a good idea is beyond me. He ruined the Indiana University program and he nearly ruined the Dolphins. Seriously, he's a complete asshat (Rich Kotite-esque, I would say), and Tony Sporano is very solid. That alone was worth 5-6 wins last year. Sporano came up with the wildcat, and I'm sure will find a way to utilize his players in unusual ways this year, too.
Why I hate them: They aren't really that talented. No one on their team has the ability to take a game over, and the mostly run on system and discipline, meaning that their ceiling is a lot lower than some teams.
Also, they play a much tougher schedule this year, as evidenced by their opening-week loss at Atlanta. They're also stuck facing New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, San Diego, and Indianapolis this year, which will be no easy task compared to their cupcake schedule from last year.
Most likely to get arrested: Jason Taylor. After a long night in Coconut Grove, a drunk Ruben wanders out into the street, only to see his biggest Dolphins man crush, Jason Taylor. Ruben walks over and tries to rub Taylor perfectly shaven head. Taylor does not take kindly to this, and throws Ruben through the window of a nearby drinkery.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 2nd in the AFC East, out of the playoffs. I had them in a 3-way tie for two spots, and just couldn't put them ahead of the other 2 teams. They didn't all play head-to-head, and had identical conference records. Since they hadn't played 4 common opponents, it went to strength of victory (+/- points), and I just couldn't give it to them.
3. East Rutherford Jets
Why I like them: Well, they have some good pieces on defense. Darrell Revis will be a top-5 corner very very soon. Rex Ryan also knows how to coach a defense, and will have them in top form. On the offensive side, Mark Sanchez was the best QB taken in the draft, and has a lot of poise. Since his arm is good enough and he seems to have NFL accuracy, I think he has all the makings of a franchise QB for the Jets. Their o-line is money and their running game is solid. Plus, this is a team that started 8-3 last year until Favre's arm died. They're a solid team, with a lot of potential.
Why I hate them: Rookie QB, a tough division and an even tougher conference. I think Sanchez will be good, but both Flacco and Ryan were exceptional situations. The Falcons were coming off a 3-13 season and played a cupcake schedule. The Ravens finished poorly 2 years ago as well, and had an easy schedule. On top of it, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed looked like 25 year olds again. Still, the Ravens had it rough against tougher competition.
The Jets are coming off a 9-7 campaign, and their division is better now. I just think that there will be too many games where Sanchez won't be able to avoid the rookie mistakes enough to get them a win.
Most likely to get arrested: Buddy Ryan. I know he doesn't play or coach for them, but I bet he'll be at some of the games. He gets a few in him, watches the team get down by 21 points, and then this happens.
How does he looks at himself in the mirror? Seriously, tell me that I'm not the only one who watched this video, saw the all-to-serious double fist-pump at the end, and immediately felt the insatiable urge to punch Mike Greenberg (or the first Jets fan I were to come across if that happened to not be Mike Greenberg) right in the face.
"You're not alone, Andy". - Buddy Ryan
That's an exact quote. He's got my back.
And Fireman Ed (who is a fireman just like Cam Cameron is a head coach, by which I mean he got fired - or at least that's what I've heard...anyhow, he sucks) gets his comeuppance.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd in the AFC East. Sorry, Jets fans, but its gonna take a year. Seriously watch out for these guys in 2010, though.4. Orchard Park Bills
Why I like them: Tons of potential. Trent Edwards is getting on towards his 4th season, which is usually when decent young QBs take the next step. Marshawn Lynch is solid when healthy. Terrell Owens is still a top-20 wideout. The defense isn't bad, and with a few good bounces, they could really make some noise, especially playing the dregs of the AFC.
Dick Jauron did have a good season in Chicago. An opportunistic defense can do a lot, and frankly, the Bills defense, though not great, isn't bad.
Why I hate them: No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills. Why? Because no one has to circle the wagons as often as the Buffalo Bills.
Man, this team stinks, and their luck stinks too. While I may dream of a good offense in Buffalo, the fact of the matter is that they suck. They need to invest in a QB, period. Trent Edwards isn't the answer. Marshawn Lynch is flakey, and Terrell Owens is a desperation move. He's got nothing left. With Posluzny out for 6 weeks, that defense lost its centerpiece. Man, this team is gonna be a bummer to watch.
They outplayed New England on Monday, and still shat the bed. That's a bad omen. You can't blow chances like that. This team is toast, even more than they were.
Most Likely to Get Arrested: Marshawn Lynch. Well, that was easy. I'll let you take your pick, but this guy is on the Pacman Jones track, I tell you.
Prediction: 5-11, 4th in the AFC East. Ouch. At least they'll have a top-10 pick TO SPEND ON A QB. Did someone say Colt McCoy?
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