So, one reader, who shall remain nameless, suggested that I explain how I come up with these rankings. He said he ignores these posts. Which would have made me feel self conscious if I hadn't been that drunk. I will continue to post, but will also explain where these come from, in the hopes that my attempt at a compromise is met by him ignoring them less.
As you can probably tell, I'm pretty tired, and finding it hard to string sentences together.
So, first, how I come up with these numbers. There are 9 categories:
(1) Win-loss record. I decided that this was the one place I was going to give credit for playing in more games. That was mostly because I didn't think that 9-0 should equal 1-0. So, you give +2 for a win, -1 for a loss. Ultimately, you should end up with a positive number. Peyton and Brees are +18's right now. Ben's a +9. Kerry Collins, the worst, is at -6.
(2) Adjusted rating. This is a calculation available at www.pro-football-reference.com. It takes QB rating and adjusts it based on peer performance for that particular season. 100 is square on 50th percentile (or supposed to be). It's really more useful when comparing across seasons, but I still like to use it because it makes the calculation a little easier.
(3) Adjusted completion percentage. Same thing as #2.
(4) The sum of adjusted TD percentage + adjusted INT percentage minus 200. So, higher is better in both measurements, and if 100 is average for one, 200 is average for 2. This gives credit for high TD% and low INT%. I guess I think the point is obvious.
(5) Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt. Same as 2 and 3, but let me explaint the "Net Yards Per Attempt" thing. It's basically YPA, but including sacks. So, it's the average number of yards picked up per pass call while the guy is under center. Hurts guys like Rodgers and Ben, compared to guys like Brady and Manning (Peyton).
(6) Aggregate Value. This is basically overall production per game, using a standard, albeit fantasy football-like, calculation. I wanted to give credit for guys who are putting up big numbers. There's value in throwing often while throwing effectively.
(7) Rating on 3rd/4th down and 6+ yards. A big part of being a good/great QB is being able to convert long downs when you're almost assured of having to pass. This is generally the most adverse situation in any given game for a QB, and I think goes a long way to displaying how capable a QB is.
(8) Aggregate production on passes thrown to targets >20 yards downfield. Being able to stretch the field is important, I think, and I wanted to give credit not just for being effective when you did it, but also crediting guys who do it more often than others. It's similar to aggregate value, but only on those particular attempts.
(9) Rating in the Red Zone. Self-explanatory. Another difficult passing situation, because you can't stretch the field. Plus, if you can't put it in the end zone, you aren't going to go far.
Get all of the information together. Award 10 to the highest total for any individual category. Zero for the lowest. Award point totals to the remainder based on where they fall on this imaginary continuum between the two. So, e.g., record - you have Brees and Manning at 18, Collins at -6. Manning/Brees get 10.000. Collins gets 0.000. Then, a guy like Favre at 15, gets 8.750. Ben gets 6.250, and so forth.
Oh, and Record, Adjusted Rating, Aggregate Value and Red Zone rating are multiplied by 1.4, and the remainder are 1.0. Max total is 106. Minimum is 0, naturally.
So, here are the rankings. I'd be happy to accept suggestions on improving the ratings. But, seriously, don't give me too much shit, because I put together this equation in about 6 minutes, and just did it because I'm bored, and a nerd, and this is what I do when I'm bored. Still, I like the results, for the most part.
1. Drew Brees 96.620 (1)
2. Brett Favre 93.292 (3)
3. Peyton Manning 92.636 (2)
4. Tom Brady 85.756 (4)
5. Aaron Rodgers 84.186 (5)
6. Matt Schaub 81.143 (7)
7. Philip Rivers 77.719 (10)
8. Ben Roethlisberger 75.253 (6)
9. Donovan McNabb 74.660 (8)
10. Kyle Orton 74.497 (13)
11. Eli Manning 74.362 (9)
12. Carson Palmer 73.178 (11)
13. Kurt Warner 72.710 (15)
14. Tony Romo 68.901 (12)
15. Joe Flacco 67.574 (14)
16. Vince Young 66.335 (18)
17. Jason Campbell 63.752 (24)
18. David Garrard 62.845 (22)
19. Josh Freeman 59.728 (New)
20. Kevin Kolb 58.045 (19)
21. Shaun Hill 57.841 (23)
22. Seneca Wallace 56.500 (25)
23. Alex Smith 56.424 (17)
24. Matt Ryan 56.276 (21)
25. Matt Hasselbeck 56.183 (16)
26. Chad Henne 52.032 (28)
27. Matt Cassel 51.631 (26)
28. Byron Leftwich 50.756 (27)
29. Jay Cutler 50.475 (20)
30. Trent Edwards 49.370 (29)
31. Chad Pennington 48.052 (31)
32. Mark Sanchez 44.619 (30)
33. Jake Delhomme 38.411 (35)
34. Marc Bulger 36.510 (37)
35. Ryan Fitzpatrick 35.764 (32)
36. Kerry Collins 35.575 (33)
37. Matt Stafford 34.025 (34)
38. Kyle Boller 31.735 (36)
39. Daunte Culpepper 29.165 (38)
40. Josh Johnson 21.749 (40)
41. JaMarcus Russell 20.145 (41)
42. Brady Quinn 17.088 (39)
43. Derek Anderson 8.002 (42)
I'm pretty sure Derek Anderson throws more TDs in this video than Cleveland has scored all season.
How right you are, Quentin... A little too close to Mr. Shit.
Yeah, you're categories mostly seem good. And I'll concede that, although I don't watch a ton of football, the system seems to spit out pretty agreeable rankings.
ReplyDeleteAnd though you didn't want shit for your rankings:
You don't need to subtract 200 in 4, that just shifts the ranges but won't change the 0-10 stuff.
I think a few too many of the categories measure the same thing: Adjusted rating is just a composite of the next three things. In particular, there's no reason to include aggregate production on deep throws, since effectiveness there shows up just about everywhere else (except red zone).
And I disagree about record being included.
Mostly, this does sound like a truly impressive excel spreadhseet.